Alright, I'll bite on discussing this type of hand more in depth - if nothing else, just to see what happens, lol.
First, at this point in a tournament, my personal opinion is that it is a complete waste of time to be thinking about 'M' and number of BB, either in your stack or in the pot.
IMO, any tournament should be looked at the same way the main event of a major poker tournament is looked at. Part I; survival, Part II; accumulate, Part III; Setup for Final Table, Part IV; what else - WIN.
To me I don't necessarily like the premise of the hand (reraising at this point in the tournament with that range of hands), but it is the premise. Given that, once called, I would still switch to, as redeposit would call it, a very weak mode of play. It is much more important to not lose 3500 chips at this point than to win 3500 chips.
Now, obviously, if I have 88 here, I still am going to bet if checked to, just for the simple fact, there is nothing telling me I don't have the best hand. Once called, I agree with slowing down, mainly because any bet at this point makes the pot much too great and unmanageable. In other words, if we bet 1,400, we've now committed 3,000 to the pot and can almost not realistically fold to any bet of like size on the river. There is nothing wrong with committing yourself to check-call after the turn to a decent bet.
I agree with putting your opponent on a range of hands, but our information is very limited in how this person plays and in addition to playing a range of hands, you have to play off experience. In other words, how many times have you run against a player who had x type of hand to have you beat and how many times did he have y type of hand to have you beat. How many times did the villian bet on the river when an overcard or scare card peeled, and he had it? or not? We don't know enough about our villian to know how he might play AK or 77, but our experience has told us based on the action in this hand that our hand is good.
Now, that is admittedly pretty much level 1 thinking, but guess what, the vast majority of players are still level 1 and therefore you should not try to think too far beyond that in most instances.
Now, if we were to profile, and see that our villian is a 21 yr old with a bunch of Full Tilt apparel on, we may want to rethink our play. A check on the turn after an obvious continuation bet on the flop is a big sign of weakness that a lot of players will pounce on and a player like that may put us in a situation to make a hero call. And while your gut would tell you your hand is still good, how many chips will he make you put in to prove you're right?
All those thoughts that are going to run through your mind towards the end of the hand, need to run through your mind BEFORE you pop him preflop.
What if he calls? What if he raises? etc., etc.,
Again, I think a preferable way to play ANY of the hands listed at this point in the tournament would be FOLD, with the exception of the 88, which could be a call in this situation to setmine, or gather information on your opponent's after flop play. |